NIGER REPUBLIC, A TRAP NIGERIA SHOULD AVOID BY ALL MEANS

 Niger Republic  a Trap Nigeria Should Avoid by all Means 

By Vincent O Ezechukwu 

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on Sunday, July 30, imposed sanctions on Niger Republic following a military coup on Wednesday, July 26, 2023. The regional body went further to issue a threat of use of force if the coupists fail to restore democracy in the Sahel country of 25.25 million within a week.

It is obvious that any military intervention in Niger will be led by the Nigeria military, not just as the immediate Southern neighbour of Niger, rather, due to Nigeria's leading role in peace making in Africa, particularly in the sub region. Again her Afro-centric foreign policy leaves her a little choice not to play the big brother role to her immediate neighbor by sending the military into the country to restore democracy, as she has done in  both in Sierra Leone and Sao Tome  and Principer.

Nigeria should understand that things have changed in the International System and even at the home front, from the last time she intervened militarily in conflict zone. Also worthy to be considered is the peculiarity of the crisis in the Sahel region where three other countries, Guinea Conakry, Mali and Burkina Faso are all under military rules, and have also pledged to support Niger Junta in event of  any military attack by ECOWAS. Having these in mind, Nigeria will be doing herself a disservice by embarking on a military intervention in Niger Republic on behalf of ECOWAS following the coup which ousted the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum.

There are many factors unfavorable to Nigeria presently to decide against military intervention in her coup infested Northern neighbour, these factors to consider include but not limited to:

1. The fight Against Boko Haram: The Multi National Joint Taskforce (MNJTF) which Niger has played a very crucial role in the fight against Boko Haram and Islamic State in West Africa, will be in disarray in an event of any military intervention in Niger Republic. Such intervention will jeopardize the fight against the Jihadist and reverse the gains already recorded in the recent times against the islamists group in the Lake Chad basin.

2. The unseen hand behind the coups in the Sahel region: It is believed that Russia Military mercenary Wegner Group are suspected to be in support of the Military Governments in the region. Nigeria will not be able to contain the fallout in an event of any military intervention to please Western powers and get herself bugged down in a proxy war between the West and Russia backed mercenaries, Ukraine is an unpleasant example.

3. On the home front; insecurity and internal unrest across every region in the country:  Nigeria military is presently over stretched in its internal security duties, the army currently is struggling to curtail numerous security challenges confronting the country, in the North West it is battling heavily armed bandits, North East Boko Haram, North Central the army is facing a war between herders and farmers and pockets of bandits in Niger and Kaduna States, South East the IPOB/ESN security challenges is proving a difficult nut to crack by the Military. Further in the South West armed kidnappers are running riot in the forests across that region, while it has oil thieves and pirates to contain in the South South region. Considering the above scenario Nigeria army lacked the ability to open and sustain another front up north and across the border.

4. Precarious financial state  of the country: Nigeria Government is currently heavily indebted to local and foreign lenders and struggling to keep her economy afloat, it will amount to foolhardy to embark on a military jamboree like what is obtained in the past,  with the current state of the country's finances.

5. River Niger Factor, (Environmental International Politics) Nigeria should equally understand that Niger is an upstream country of the River Niger, therefore, any sanction that amounts to cutting off electricity to the landlocked country may force the country consider building dam on its part of the River Niger which will deny Nigeria a large amount of the Niger water to flood her own dams. Obviously Niger might not have the funds to embark on such mega project on the immediate future, nevertheless funding can come from China or Russia to teach Nigeria a lesson in International Environmental Politics.

Way Forward :

My suggestion to ECOWAS and Nigeria in particular, is to seek peace, dialogue and diplomatic approach to solving the impasse in Niger Republic, instead of resorting to violence or sanctions which will hurt the long suffering citizens of Niger the more.

Finally, ECOWAS Heads of Government can agree to allow the Junta led by General Abdourahamane Tchiani a six months widow to conduct election and restore democracy in the country. Any option that is undiplomatic will resort to crisis with potential to destabilize the region even more. 

Nigeria and ECOWAS should avoid this trap called Niger Republic, in order not to get their hands badly burnt.

Vincent O Ezechukwu

Is a journalist, Historian and Public Affairs analyst based in Awka.